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Forum:2010 Pacific hurricane season
Pre-Season 90C.INVEST Okay, I was a little surprised to see this listed among the active tropical systems on Wunderground when I went to see if it was above or below freezing outside. (It was below.) Just because of the time of year I don't expect anything, but even the chance of maybe something sort of almost happening is interesting when it happens in February. :P CPHC says: "Slow development of this feature is possible over the next two days." --Patteroast 15:36, February 17, 2010 (UTC) :Wow, I was so surprised to see anything I didn't even notice how far south it is. CPHC says: "An area of thunderstorms about 1375 miles south of Honolulu is associated with a low pressure area straddling the equator. This area of disturbed weather is traveling east at 25 mph. The convection has shown signs of intensification and organization over the past six hours, but still expect a low chance for development into a tropical cyclone." Weird! --Patteroast 18:20, February 18, 2010 (UTC) May 01E.AGATHA 90E.INVEST Up on NHC, medium risk. They say: "ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT..." Looks like we're getting started. --Patteroast 02:09, May 26, 2010 (UTC) :High risk, now. "...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO." It's generally headed north and either way will likely fall apart over Guatemala or Chiapas. But if it speeds up and gets back over water, we could have something veeeery interesting. --Patteroast 10:59, May 28, 2010 (UTC) :Also, TCFA. --Patteroast 11:01, May 28, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Agatha Whoops. I didn't check any tropical website for a day, and I missed Agatha. It's already formed, moved over the mountains of Guatemala, and dissipated. --Patteroast 16:16, May 30, 2010 (UTC) June 03E.BLAS 92E.INVEST Medium risk of development. Pretty well out to sea if it does develop. --Patteroast 21:25, June 14, 2010 (UTC) :Still medium risk, pretty much stationary. --Patteroast 12:17, June 15, 2010 (UTC) ::Looking better, 50% and a TCFA. --Patteroast 18:40, June 15, 2010 (UTC) :::High risk. Quoth NHC: "...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESION." (I just noticed they misspelled 'depression' in that quote...) --Patteroast 06:38, June 17, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Blas I guess it was waiting for 2E to be out of the picture... strengthened to storm strength. Not really any land in danger, though. --Patteroast 02:32, June 18, 2010 (UTC) :Still spinning around, not forecast to get much stronger before fading away. If 4E becomes Celia and heads west, it might rip whatever's left of Blas apart. --Patteroast 13:03, June 19, 2010 (UTC) ::Nearly dead, now. Down to depression, NHC says it should be a remnant by the end of the day. --Patteroast 16:50, June 21, 2010 (UTC) :: ::Long gone. 15:39, July 1, 2010 (UTC) 02E.TWO AoI: Gulf of Tehuantepec Was low risk on NHC, but it up to medium now. Near stationary. --Patteroast 12:17, June 15, 2010 (UTC) 93E.INVEST Invest'd. 40% chance according to NHC. Really close to land, though. --Patteroast 18:40, June 15, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Two-E Oh, hey! Forecast to hug the coast and become Blas. Rainbands are already onshore. --Patteroast 21:12, June 16, 2010 (UTC) :Ah, dissipated... not even over land. --Patteroast 02:32, June 18, 2010 (UTC) 04E.CELIA 94E.INVEST Hm. Same area as TD2, but apparently not a re-development. --Patteroast 18:59, June 18, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Four-E Depression, forecast to be Celia soon, and a hurricane after that. --Patteroast 13:03, June 19, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Celia Oh my. Named and quickly on its way to being a hurricane. NHC says she's "... SHOWING SIGNS OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION..." --Patteroast 22:20, June 19, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Celia And here we go. The first hurricane of the EPac season. Category one at the moment, but forecast to be Cat 2 soon. No threat to land, either way. --Patteroast :Category 2, looks like it'll peak as a category 3. -Patteroast 08:11, June 22, 2010 (UTC) ::Poor Celia. Looks like she got robbed of being the first major hurricane of the season. Then again, I never saw an obvious eye, so I guess I can't be too surprised. (Back down to category 1, no longer forecast to reach 3.) --Patteroast 05:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :::Hmm. Maybe I spoke too soon. Back up to 2, and not forecast to get to 3, but looking good. And with the obvious eye I was looking for before. --Patteroast 18:57, June 23, 2010 (UTC) ::::Yup, a burst of intensification and we now have major hurricane Celia. Forecast even leaves the possibility of hitting category four open! --Patteroast 21:33, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :::::What the #*($??!?! I neglect to check for a day, and Celia's a category five! Holy crap! Still nowhere near land, but wow! I did not expect that at all! --Patteroast 07:02, June 25, 2010 (UTC) ::::::Since it hit 5, it's been rapidly weakening. It's all the way down to a tropical storm and near dissipation. Still, that was quite a surprise. --Patteroast 00:37, June 28, 2010 (UTC) :And last advisory. Bye-bye, Celia! 10:44, June 29, 2010 (UTC) BTW, it weakened back into Cat 2 before becoming a Cat 5. YE 05E.DARBY 95E.INVEST A rather large stormy area, extending quite far south. NHC's got it at low risk for now, but some of the models like it. HWRF makes it a landfalling hurricane. --Patteroast 16:50, June 21, 2010 (UTC) :High risk, now. Almost all of the models show this developing, and likely making landfall. --Patteroast 08:11, June 22, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Five-E As predicted by almost everything. Should be Darby soon enough. --Patteroast 05:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Storm Darby And there it is. --Patteroast 12:38, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :Wow. The East Pac is on a hot streak right now, 4 storms and it isn't even July. I think this storm marks the earliest "D" named storm in the East Pac on record, and it looks like we have a big season on our way in this basin. What's even stranger to me right now is the West Pac. They have only had one storm right now, Omais, and no April, May, and if the next week continues dead, June storms have formed in the basin, which would be the first time that's happened on record. I thought the 2009 West Pac season was quiet enough, but this? At this rate the 2010 West Pac season could very well beat 1977 as the least active West Pac season on record. 19:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC) ::It's been a crazy June for the EPac so far, and it's headed towards crazier... Darby's entered rapid intensification. Should be a hurricane very soon. --Patteroast 21:33, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :::I've got a bad feeling about Darby; if it pulls an Ava or an Adolph in intensity, it could be the strongest storm to hit Mexico so early in the season on record. 07:44, June 24, 2010 (UTC) Hurricane Darby Upgraded. --Patteroast 16:22, June 24, 2010 (UTC) ... and now Darby's rapidly deepened as well. Category three! Still forecast to weaken to a storm before it turns toward the coast, though. --Patteroast 16:54, June 25, 2010 (UTC) It's like Darby hit a wall. It's motion stalled and has turned towards the coast of Mexico, but it's strength has reversed as well... back down to storm strength, forecast to dissipate before landfall. --Patteroast 00:37, June 28, 2010 (UTC) :It got absorbed into Alex's Pacific side of its circulation has as it was developing into a tropical depression. The remnant convection of Darby combined with Alex's rains are responsible for three deaths in Mexico. It's hard to believe that a TD absorbed a cat. 3 but that's what happened. 2007Astro'sHurricane 16:00, July 2, 2010 (UTC) July 91C.Invest Aol:South of Mexico Large area of convection. Some slow devlopment possible. YE 16:09, July 1, 2010 (UTC) Moved into the CPAC sevral days ago. YE 03:17, July 10, 2010 (UTC) 91C.INVEST First CPac invest of the season! (As long as you don't count the weird one in February that was straddling the equator...) It doesn't look like anything right now, but apparently it has a 20% chance. --Patteroast 09:40, July 6, 2010 (UTC) :Nevermind. It looked worse every time I looked at it, and it's not even shown as an AoI on the CPHC anymore. --Patteroast 18:18, July 7, 2010 (UTC) ::Gone from NRL. YE 03:15, July 10, 2010 (UTC) 06E.NONAME Aol:Near Central America On Alt TWO, devlopemt possible. 03:26, July 10, 2010 (UTC) 96E.INVEST Invest'd. Some of the models make this Estelle. --Patteroast 03:58, July 12, 2010 (UTC) Seemes to be faaling apart, but we will see. Latest TWO says. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. YE 14:02, July 12, 2010 (UTC) :Looks like a more concentrated center's coming out of this mess. NHC's got it up to 50% risk. --Patteroast 11:33, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :TWO says this. 000 ABPZ20 KNHC 141740 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1100 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2010 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AROUND A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER MUSHER :Wow! EPac sure heating back up. YE 18:00, July 14, 2010 (UTC) Tropical Depression Six-E Should be short-lived. YE 21:04, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :Forecast to become Estelle briefly. --Patteroast 21:08, July 14, 2010 (UTC) ::NHC says THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. ::Not goona happen. YE 21:19, July 14, 2010 (UTC) :::Weakened, no longer forecast to reach storm strength. --Patteroast 08:06, July 16, 2010 (UTC) ::: :::Gone. YE ::: Aol:1400 miles for Baja Latest TWO says. A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. YE 14:03, July 12, 2010 (UTC) :Poof. YE 13:54, July 13, 2010 (UTC) Aol:Near Central Mexico Aol:Near Central Mexico No mention on Two, but I believe this is a mistake. Conditions are marginally favorable if this system remains south. Look impressive today. YE 17:13, July 25, 2010 (UTC) :Still, no mention. YE 18:42, July 25, 2010 (UTC) ::Agreed, should be mentioned, Looks impressive. Stll a tropcial wave though. 23:36, July 25, 2010 (UTC) :::Less organized now. YE 14:52, July 26, 2010 (UTC) ::::Merged with 97E. YE 21:47, July 27, 2010 (UTC) :::::Nevermind. Still out there put a piece of garbage. It is going poof. 97E Invest Aol:Near Colima Looks impressive. No mention on TWO. YE 14:54, July 26, 2010 (UTC) 97E Invest NHC has a floater on it but for some reason titled "Not active". Could this become Estelle before the end of the moth? YE 14:57, July 26, 2010 (UTC) :Poof. YE 1:14, July 27, 2010 (UTC) ::Looks better organized. Vary large. YE 17:54, July 27, 2010 (UTC) :::Not anymore. YE 18:03, July 27, 2010 (UTC) ::::Nevermind, there is a lot of convection. However, the convection is isolated and somewhat disorganized. The is system is huge, could develop into two or three tropical cyclones. YE 02:07, July 28, 2010 (UTC) Aol:Near Costa Rica Aol:Near Costa Rica Looks impressive on visible imagery. No mention on TWO of course. YE 02:16, July 28, 2010 (UTC) Retirements at a glance Right now, based on Agatha's death update (146), I want to give it a 95-100% chance of retirement. Does anyone else have guesses on Agatha's chances? 22:35, May 31, 2010 (UTC) :It certainly would look like a good bet, but EPac retirements are so rare and all-over-the-map that I'm not willing to give even Agatha more than a 50% chance. It's certainly deserving, though. --Patteroast 17:09, June 21, 2010 (UTC) Why not? This storm is NOT like Alma 2 years ago, which, IMO, had virtually NO chance of retirement. Agatha, on the other hand, is like an EPac Allison, the THIRD most destructive EPac storm on record, as well as the 5TH deadliest. That's bad enough for me. 02:37, June 22, 2010 (UTC) :It's not so much that I think that Agatha's not worthy of retirement... it absolutely is, and should be retired. It's just, looking at the list of retired EPac storms, I don't feel entirely confident that retirement choices will make any sense. Then again, I hope I'm wrong. Most of the really bad misses were a couple decades ago. --Patteroast 08:15, June 22, 2010 (UTC) Well, I can cope with you on that. Fico, Fefa, Knut, and Iva(prob. retired to avoid confusion with I'w'a), were all retired for unknown causes. Agatha will be retired by the same standards as storms like Pauline and Iniki were. Other storms, like 2002's Kenna, were retired, but Lane in 2006 wasn't, for 2x the damage, too. But Agatha isn't Kenna or Lane. It's a big league storm, and it's an obvious case on retirement. The WMO will probrably be serious on Agatha just like they were on Allison in the Atlantic, and a less destructive Pacifc example, 2008's Alma. 03:15, June 23, 2010 (UTC) :Hope you're right! --Patteroast 05:16, June 23, 2010 (UTC) : :i think Agatha will be retired. 20:09, June 30, 2010 (UTC)